半个老股民：
潍柴动力(SZ000338)大A收盘港股拉，总这么干可不好
Flyyaaa：
1~10月，上汽集团新能源汽车销售80万辆，同比增长44%，累计销量已超过去年全年水平，显然上汽集团已经走出上半年疫情的影响，感觉还是可以关注一下的!
上汽集团这几年非常注重子品牌的培育和发展，如飞凡、智己等，今天想跟大家聊聊智己7。智己汽车立志打破电动汽车车身重，操控差的产品标签，智己L7频频用性能出圈，此前其已打破保时捷Taycan创造的连续漂移距离最长的吉尼斯世界纪录，并在上海天马赛道刷圈成绩直指保时捷911。
其实智己L7死磕操控性能这件事，不能说对或错，毕竟在外有丰田死磕技术，为什么自主品牌就不可以呢?所以你们觉得，智己L7这一波，做得如何呢?福耀玻璃(SH600660) 潍柴动力(SZ000338)
沪宁-索尔古德曼：
潍柴动力(SZ000338) 亿华通-U(SH688339)
氢能再不加快速度，卡车甚至轮船都要上电池了。氢更没市场。
楼兰资本：
潍柴动力(SZ000338) 废柴动力，千年冤种
炒G毁一生：
潍柴动力(SZ000338)港股价格都高过大A的了，这货无语了!
20扬帆起航20：
潍柴动力(SZ000338) 就剩下吹牛逼
领导巡视巡视：
潍柴动力(SZ000338) 9块没套住，11块套牢了?
andyding：
潍柴动力(SZ000338)比亚迪(SZ002594)特斯拉(TSLA) 这两天对特斯拉SEMI卡车的分析文章告一段落，由于特斯拉这次SEMI卡车发布会&交付仪式对关键参数比如最终的售价(影响经济性)、GVW车自身重量(影响有效载荷=81000LBS-自身重量和经济性)、电池电量(决定售价和有效载荷)，目前所有的分析都是道听途说毫无根据可言，得出的结论也经不起推敲。
但下面一篇来自前卡车司机眼中的特斯拉SEMI到底如何的文章你一定要读，看了文章你也许理解特斯拉why没有公布那些关键参数。
TeslaCEOElon Muskand Tesla Semi Senior Engineering Manager Dan Priestlytook the stage last night– the stage being a flatbed trailer – to announce the arrival of the Tesla Semi. As everyone has noted, this is five years after Musk announced the Semi and three years after Musk said the Semi would enter production.
After the debut,I wrote a piece asking some questions about the rig, especially concerning some of its more unusual elements like the central seating position and doors behind the driver. I’d spent nine months of that year driving an over-the-roadtruckmore than 70,000 miles in the United States and Canada for two companies. After last night’s presentation, most of those questions remain. But let’s consider what happened last night.
I'll start by saying congratulations to Tesla the same way I’ve congratulated every other aspiring and established automaker for getting a hot product out the doorfinally(such as Lordstown Motors). Making cars is hard. The times are harder.
Now to the breakdown.
If the Semi ends up being the future of trucking, we won’t know for another decade or so. More importantly, the Tesla Semi as-is could only be the future of a certain kind of trucking, bringing us to the first issue we need to clear up: The word “Trucking.”
That word makes people, even truckers, think of long-haul, over-the-road tractor-trailers with drivers who sleep in truck stops and don’t see their families but once every couple of months. Those tractors are called “sleepers,” referring to the area behind the seats that contains a bed where the driver, well, you can guess what he or she does there.
The Tesla Semi is not that. The Semi is what’s called a “day cab.” This is for regional work, like moving goods between locations a few hundred miles apart. In the early mornings you’ll see day cabs delivering food and drink from local warehouses to restaurants. On interstate highways in the wee hours, you’ll probably pass or be passed by numerous FedEx day cabs running parcels from one sorting depot to another. They’re cabs and a couple of seats, often a window in back you can see the occupants through. Those drivers go home every day at the ends of their shifts.
Truckers drive thousands of miles per week all over North America and sleep in their trucks. Daycabbers drive regional routes and sleep at home. The Semi serves the latter.
This could be true, but there’s some context – and it needs on-road proof.
The Semi isn’t the firstelectric truck, nor is it the only one fitted with three motors. The only reason it gets so much ink is because it’s a Tesla. That’s not hate. Celebrity and industry-defining products have their perks.
ButDaimlertruck division Freightlinerhas an eCascadiaClass 8 rig plus an electricschool busand an electric box truck. Nikola has itsTre BEV.Volvo-owned Renault Truckshas an even wider selection of e-rigs than Daimler, but in Europe. The Daimler can pull the same 82,000 pounds as the Tesla.
The step change would be the real-world range and the ecosystem – the unique selling proposition that made Tesla, Tesla as far back as the debut of theModel S. TheeCascadia is listed witha typical range of 220 miles with tandem drivers (the two axles behind the cab) or230miles with a single axle in long-range configuration. Daimler’s maxbatterycapacity is440kWh. The Tre BEV uses a 733-kWh battery to go 330 miles. The EuropeanRenault over-the-road T E-Techtruck can go 186 miles on a charge. TheRenault’s max battery capacity is540kWh.
Mixing those battery figures with Tesla’s claim that the Semi uses less than 2 kWh of battery capacity per mile, it’s clear the Tesla’s packing a whole lot more battery than those other trucks.
Fluff isn’t always positive, and Idon’t understand Dixon’s complaint. Yes, we’re missing a lot of info. But PepsiCo, which owns Frito-Lay, is the Semi’s first customer. Frito-Lay makes chips. Those chips have to get from the factory to distribution centers and stores. Diesel trucks take them there. Our guess is that right now, a few Semis are on the job, too. It’s not Tesla’s fault that Frito-Lay needs to haul chips.
As for proving the concept, Musk and Priestly showed video of a Semi pulling a flatbed load of highway dividers over the Donner Pass, a 6% grade in northern California. They also showed a timelapse video of what they said was a full load of nearly 82,000 pounds being driven from Fresno to San Diego.
Pepsi weighs a lot more than Cheetos, and Pepsi knows this. The company would have nixed the deal years ago if it didn’t believe the truck could pull a bunch of Pepsi.However, until we know how much the Semi weighs, and how much of its 82,000 pounds is cargo instead of tractor, that's another asterisk after "definitive proof of concept."
Update:Not long after this piece ran, a colleague of Dixon's wrote to say, "I think the point that Oliver was trying to make there (and unfortunately we are frequently quoted with just tiny snippets out of larger comments) ... is that Tesla has said absolutely nothing about the weight of the Semi. ... The 1 MWh battery in the Semi probably weighs in the range of 12-15,000 lbs compared to about 1,200 for adieselpowertrain. Even with the extra 2,000 lbs allowed for an electric truck, you’re probably losing somewhere in the neighborhood of 10,000s of payload with this truck and the commensurate revenue that goes with it. That’s a non-trivial amount, about 20-25% depending on the weight of the truck and trailer. While a 500-mile run at 82,000 lbs is absolutely impressive, the question remains as to how much of that was cargo?"
The pair were talking about how regenerativebrakingwould make descending long grades easier for drivers. There’s truth to this, but it’s overblown.
At the top of a long descent, the trucker puts the transmission in the proper gear for the descent. When I drove over the Grapevine grade down into California's Central Valley five days a week, I’d slow down at the top of the hill and use the paddle shifters to put the truck into fourth or fifth gear (out of eight) for the descent heading north. The truck would hit about 45 mph, the speed limit, and hold there. If I needed to slow down, I’d tap the left paddle to drop a gear. I wouldn’t touch the brakes the entire descent.
Any driver in a hilly area who still has a job after seven days of driving knows how to handle grades. The key is the slowdown at the top of the hill. Drivers mess up when they forget that part, but unless they’ve run up to ludicrous speeds, the brakes will still slow the truck enough to downshift. Everyone else on the road will smell when that’s happened, though.
No one cares about cold brakes at the bottom of the hill, but almost any step that makes life easier for truckers is a fine step.
This is a step back from Musk’s claim that “Jackknifing is impossible,” and there’s truth to this, but it’s still overblown.
What’s overblown is that electric motors can’t beat the physics of a tractor-trailer. We don’t know what the Semi weighs.Volvo’s VNL 300 tandem day cab rigweighs about 16,500 pounds. The federal government’s Consolidated Appropriations Act makes anadditional gross weight allowance for electric trucksof 2,000 pounds. That's why the Semi and every other electric Class 8 truck can pull up to 82,000 pounds and still be legal. If we add 2,000 pounds to that VNL 300, we’re at 18,500 pounds. Let’s say the Semi is 20,000 pounds with all that battery, to be safe, leaving a potential 62,000 pounds for the load. If things go bad for the Semi driver and the 62,000-pound trailer starts pushing the 20,000-pound tractor around, the galaxy’s fastest traction control won’t stop a jackknife even in good weather. Even if the Semi is 25,000 pounds, you'll get the same result.
What’s true is that an electric motor on an axle will make faster adjustments and therefore likely more precise adjustments, than a dieselECUthat has to receive and register the wheel slip information and then send a command to the engine and/or brakes. This can raise the threshold for the possibility of a jackknife incident, which is a good thing.
I have never been in a Class 8 truck that didn’t have a way to empty theair bagsto lower the chassis. I share a storage unit with a friend who drives a 1999 Peterbilt 379. It has a toggle for lowering the chassis. Without it, hooking up that busted trailer in the back of that yard you absolutely hate going to would be impossible without a forklift or two.
A trained sheep – or pretty close – could drive a tractor-trailer on the highway. Truckers go through all that training so they can learn to drive in a city without killing everything, to drive backward, to park between other trucks, to manage the air-based systems, to pre-check for roadworthiness, and to fill out the stacks of paperwork required to move loads and stay legal.
Musk and Priestly showed a timelapse video of the Semi doing a 500-mile run from Fremont to San Diego, with Musk saying the entire, uncut video will eventually hit YouTube. We really want to watch it. A graph displayed at the presentation said the Semi departed with a 97% charge and arrived with 4% of charge remaining. Problem is, the driver’s wearing a baseball cap that occasionally obscures the left-side screen that contains the speedo, which seems … highly coincidental. If the camera were placed lower, like it is in a later section of video where the driver's doing a constant 55 mph, or if it were placed anywhere on the left side of the cab, or if the driver weren’t wearing a hat, we’d see the speedo the entire time.
The numbers we can see show what looks like some tenderfoot driving. Keeping in mind that the speed limit for Class 8 trucksis 55 mph in California, the Semi did 55 or below for the opening stint; at one point doing 29 mph on what looks like open highway. The driver follows another rig on I-5 at about 60 to 65 mph for a spell, up to about the one-third mark in the trip. Then he locks into 55 or 57 mph for the long stint through central California, dropping as low as 44 mph and 39 mph for a surprising length of time.
For the final 100-mile stretch from Riverside to San Diego, after the driver takes his mandatory break, he doesn’t exceed 51 mph in the video, dropping as low as 47 mph on open highway.
We gotta watch the whole uncut thing, but it seems like if you see the Semi on the interstate, you should look for it in the slow lane.
Picking up my questions from five years ago, I still don’t want to sit in the middle of the truck. I’d like the windows – at least two of them – to roll down. I wish the doors weren't behind the driver. And I hope I can turn at least one of those screens off. But I did get the physical mirrors.
The real judges of the Tesla Semi will be the companies that buy it, and after Pepsi, that waiting list includes blue chips like UPS and Anheuser-Busch. The Semi website claims “estimated fuel savings of up to 200,000 within [the] first three years of ownership.” That means that for every 15 trucks in the fleet, the fleet owner is saving 1 million per year before maintenance savings.
If Tesla can come close to that, no matter what I say — and depending on the price, which we still don't know — Tesla might not be able to build these fast enough. And I can't wait to drive it.
小P慢跑：
潍柴动力(SZ000338) //@鞍山老崔:电池相对燃油重卡的额外重量牺牲了多达 20-25%的有效商业载荷。
这是目前长途运输载重汽车电动化的最大痛点。
一般来说油费占运费比例为30%。毛估估改电以后油费省80%，油费的30%变成6%，但运费却降了20-25%。油费省了个寂寞。
共成长：
中国建材(03323) 越来越觉得水泥行业的未来难以捉摸，中国建材目前亏损七八个点，如果这一波给机会回本可能会减仓，把仓位移到确定性更强赔率也不错的潍柴动力(SZ000338) 或者格力电器(SZ000651) 上。
